What determines your refund size, and why 2026 might be different
Your refund in 2026 depends on how much tax you overpaid during 2025—not on the year itself. The IRS doesn't give larger refunds in certain years. What changes is your income, deductions, withholding, and life circumstances. If any of those shift between 2024 and 2025, your refund will shift with them.
The only tax law changes that could affect 2026 refunds are changes to the tax code that explore to 2025 income. Right now, several provisions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act are set to expire at the end of 2025—meaning they would not explore to 2026 returns filed in 2027. Those include the increased standard deduction, the expanded child tax credit, and lower tax brackets. If Congress does not extend them, your tax liability could increase, which would shrink your refund. But that is a congressional decision, not something the IRS controls.
Key Takeaways
- Your refund size is determined by how much you overpaid in taxes during the year, not by the calendar year itself.
- Changes to your income, deductions, dependents, or withholding between 2024 and 2025 will affect your 2026 refund more than any other factor.
- Tax law provisions from 2017 are scheduled to expire at the end of 2025, which could increase your tax liability if Congress does not extend them.
- You can estimate your 2026 refund by comparing your expected 2025 income and withholding to what you actually earned and paid in 2024.
How your personal situation drives refund size, not the year
A bigger refund in 2026 happens when you have a bigger gap between the taxes withheld from your paychecks and the taxes you actually owe. That gap grows when your income drops, when you claim more deductions, when you have a new dependent, or when you adjust your W-4 to withhold more. It shrinks when your income rises, when deductions disappear, or when you lower your withholding.
If you got a raise in 2024 and kept the same W-4, you likely underpaid in 2024 and will owe money in 2025. If you got married, had a child, or bought a house in 2024, your deductions or credits may have changed. If you changed jobs or went freelance, your withholding may not match your actual liability. These are the levers that move your refund, not the calendar.
What tax law changes could affect your 2026 refund
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 lowered tax rates and raised the standard deduction. Those changes were temporary and are set to expire on December 31, 2025. If Congress extends them, your 2026 tax return (filed in 2027) will use the same rates and deduction amounts you use in 2025. If Congress lets them expire, your tax brackets will revert to pre-2017 levels and your standard deduction will drop.
The child tax credit is also set to expire. Currently it is $2,000 per child under 17. After 2025, it would drop to $1,000 unless extended. The earned income tax credit and dependent care credit also have expiration dates. None of these changes are certain—Congress often extends provisions at the last minute. But if you have children, earn below $75,000, or claim dependent care expenses, watch for news about these extensions in late 2025.
State and local tax deductions (SALT) are also capped at $10,000 through 2025. If that cap expires, you may be able to deduct more state and local taxes, which would lower your federal tax liability and increase your refund. Again, this depends on congressional action.
How to estimate whether your 2026 refund will be bigger or smaller
Compare your 2024 tax return to what you expect in 2025. Look at your adjusted gross income (AGI). If your 2025 income will be lower than 2024, your refund is likely to be bigger, assuming your withholding stays the same. If your income will be higher, your refund is likely to be smaller.
Next, check your deductions and credits. Did you get married, have a child, buy a house, or start a business? Did you lose a dependent or sell an investment property? Each of these changes your tax liability. The IRS Form 1040 instructions list all credits and deductions—scan them against your 2025 situation.
Finally, look at your W-4. If you changed jobs in 2024 or 2025, your new employer may have used a different withholding calculation. If you did not update your W-4 after a major life change, you may have withheld too little or too much. The IRS W-4 calculator on IRS.gov can show you whether your current withholding matches your expected 2025 liability.
Why you should not count on a specific refund amount
Your refund is not a prediction—it is a calculation based on actual income and actual taxes paid. Until you file your 2025 return in early 2026, you will not know the exact amount. Bonuses, overtime, investment gains, freelance income, and job changes can all shift your final number. So can changes to deductions if you itemize instead of taking the standard deduction, or vice versa.
If you are counting on a large refund to cover an expense, build in a buffer. If you are worried about owing money, increase your withholding now rather than waiting to see what happens. The IRS allows you to adjust your W-4 at any time during the year.
What to do if you want a different refund size in 2026
If you got a large refund in 2025 and do not want that to happen again, you are giving the government an interest-free loan. Adjust your W-4 to withhold less, so more money stays in your paycheck. Use the IRS W-4 calculator to find the right number of allowances or credits to claim.
If you owed money in 2025 and want to avoid that in 2026, increase your withholding. You can also make estimated tax payments if you are self-employed or have income that is not subject to withholding. The IRS Form 1040-ES shows the quarterly payment schedule and amounts.
If you expect major changes in 2025—a job loss, a big bonus, a new business, or a major life event—do not wait until tax time to adjust. Contact your employer's payroll department or a tax professional in the fall of 2025 to recalculate your withholding based on year-to-date income.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the IRS give bigger refunds in even years or odd years?
No. The IRS does not have a pattern of larger or smaller refunds based on the calendar year. Refund size depends entirely on individual income, withholding, deductions, and credits. Two people filing in the same year can get very different refunds.
If tax rates go back up in 2026, will my refund automatically be bigger?
Not necessarily. If tax rates increase, your tax liability increases, which means you owe more. That would make your refund smaller, not bigger—unless you also increase your withholding to compensate. Higher taxes and higher refunds do not go together.
Can I change my W-4 now to get a bigger refund in 2026?
Yes, but that is not how withholding works. Adjusting your W-4 now changes how much is taken from your paychecks in 2025. If you withhold more, you will have less take-home pay but a bigger refund when you file in 2026. If you withhold less, you will have more take-home pay but a smaller refund. You are moving money around, not creating it.
What if Congress does not extend the tax cuts—will everyone's refund shrink?
Not everyone's. People with lower incomes may see their refunds grow because the tax brackets would shift. People with higher incomes and large deductions may see refunds shrink. The effect depends on your specific situation. Watch for news about extensions in late 2025, and adjust your withholding if the law changes.