Most tax filers get a refund, but the number shifts year to year

The percentage of people who receive a tax refund varies depending on the year and which group you're looking at. In recent years, roughly 70 to 80 percent of individual tax filers have received refunds, though this number moves based on changes to tax law, economic conditions, and how many people file in the first place.

The IRS publishes these figures annually in their Statistics of Income reports, which break down filing patterns by year. The percentage has stayed relatively stable over the past decade, but it is not fixed—it depends on how many people claim deductions, how much was withheld from their paychecks, and whether they had major life changes like marriage, job loss, or self-employment income.

What matters more than the national percentage is whether you will get a refund, which depends entirely on how much tax was taken from your pay versus what you actually owe. That calculation is personal to your situation.

Key Takeaways

  • Between 70 and 80 percent of individual tax filers receive refunds in most years, though this percentage varies annually.
  • The IRS publishes exact refund percentages each year in their Statistics of Income reports, which are available on the IRS website.
  • Whether you get a refund depends on your withholding—how much your employer took from your paychecks—not on national averages.
  • Self-employed people, gig workers, and people with multiple jobs are less likely to receive refunds than W-2 employees.

Why the percentage changes from year to year

Tax law changes affect how many people end up with refunds. When the standard deduction increases, more people claim it instead of itemizing, which changes their final tax bill. When tax brackets shift or credits change, the amount withheld from paychecks may no longer match what people actually owe.

Economic conditions matter too. During recessions, more people experience job loss or reduced hours, which changes their income and withholding mid-year. During strong employment years, more people work full-time with steady withholding, making refunds more likely.

The number of people filing also affects the percentage. If more self-employed people file in a given year, the refund rate typically drops, because self-employed filers are less likely to get refunds—they usually owe instead. If more W-2 employees file, the rate goes up.

Who is most likely to get a refund

W-2 employees with a single job are the most likely group to receive refunds. Their employer withholds tax automatically based on a W-4 form, and most people claim withholding amounts that result in a refund rather than owing money at tax time. This is partly intentional—many people use the refund as forced savings—and partly because withholding tables are conservative.

People who claim dependents, especially children, are also likely to receive refunds because of the Child Tax Credit and other dependent-related credits. These credits often exceed the tax they owe, resulting in a refund.

People with low to moderate income who work part-time or seasonally are likely to get refunds because their withholding may be higher than their actual tax liability, particularly if they claim the Earned Income Tax Credit.

Who is less likely to get a refund

Self-employed people and gig workers rarely receive refunds. They pay estimated taxes quarterly based on their expected income, and if they underestimate, they owe at tax time. If they overestimate, they get a refund, but this requires deliberate planning.

People with multiple jobs often owe instead of getting refunds. When you have two W-2 jobs, each employer withholds based on the assumption that it is your only job. The combined withholding is often too low, leaving you with a bill instead of a refund.

High-income earners are less likely to receive refunds because they have more control over their withholding and often adjust it to avoid overpaying. People with significant investment income or rental property income also frequently owe rather than receive refunds.

Where to find the actual percentage for a specific year

The IRS publishes detailed refund statistics in their annual Statistics of Income reports, available on the IRS website under "Tax Stats." These reports include the percentage of returns with refunds, the average refund amount, and breakdowns by income level and filing status.

The most recent complete data is usually published 18 months after the tax year ends. For example, complete 2023 data became available in late 2024. If you need current-year information, the IRS also releases preliminary statistics during filing season.

These reports are free and public. They show not just the percentage of people who get refunds, but also how that percentage has changed over time, which can help you understand whether your own situation is typical.

How withholding affects whether you get a refund

Your refund depends on the difference between what was withheld from your paychecks and what you actually owe in tax. If more was withheld than you owe, you get a refund. If less was withheld, you owe money. If they match exactly, you break even.

You control withholding by filling out a W-4 form with your employer. The form asks about dependents, other income, and whether you have a spouse who also works. Based on your answers, your employer withholds a certain amount from each paycheck.

Most people claim withholding that results in a refund because it feels safer than owing money at tax time. But you can adjust your W-4 to reduce withholding if you want more money in each paycheck instead of a lump sum refund later. The IRS provides a withholding calculator on their website to help you figure out the right amount.

The difference between refund percentage and average refund amount

The percentage of people who get refunds is different from how much money they receive. In recent years, roughly 75 percent of filers get refunds, but the average refund amount is typically between $2,500 and $3,500. This means most people get a refund, but the size varies widely.

Some people get refunds of a few hundred dollars. Others get refunds of several thousand. The variation depends on income level, number of dependents, credits claimed, and how much was withheld. A person earning $35,000 with two children might get a $3,000 refund, while a person earning $75,000 with no dependents might get a $500 refund or owe money instead.

The average refund amount also changes year to year based on tax law changes and economic conditions. When the Child Tax Credit increased in 2021, average refunds rose. When that credit was reduced in 2026, average refunds fell.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is it normal to get a tax refund?

Yes. Between 70 and 80 percent of tax filers receive refunds in most years, so getting a refund is the typical experience for W-2 employees. However, it is not universal—self-employed people, people with multiple jobs, and high-income earners are more likely to owe money instead.

Does getting a refund mean I paid too much in taxes?

Yes. A refund means more tax was withheld from your paychecks than you actually owed. You are getting back the overpayment. You can reduce this by adjusting your W-4 to lower your withholding, which puts more money in your regular paychecks instead of waiting for a refund.

Why do some people owe instead of getting a refund?

People owe when less tax was withheld from their paychecks than they actually owe. This happens most often with self-employed people, people with multiple jobs, people with investment income, or people who had major life changes during the year that affected their tax situation.

Can I find out what percentage of people in my income bracket get refunds?

Yes. The IRS Statistics of Income reports break down refund percentages by income level, filing status, and other categories. These reports are free and available on the IRS website. They show you how your situation compares to others in a similar position.