Your 2026 refund depends on what Congress does with tax law, not on a fixed increase

Whether you get a larger refund in 2026 than you did in 2025 depends almost entirely on changes to the tax code that have not yet been written. The IRS does not automatically increase refunds year to year. Your refund size is determined by the tax brackets, deductions, and credits that are in effect when you file — and several major provisions are set to change at the end of 2025 unless Congress acts.

The most significant change coming is the expiration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) provisions on December 31, 2025. If Congress does not extend them, tax brackets will narrow, the standard deduction will shrink, and the child tax credit will drop from $2,000 to $1,000 per child. For most people, this means smaller refunds, not larger ones — unless you have significant deductions or credits that increase.

What actually determines your refund is the gap between what you paid in taxes during the year and what you owe when you file. A larger refund does not mean you earned more or got a tax cut. It means you overpaid during the year.

Key Takeaways

  • Your 2026 refund size depends on tax law changes Congress has not yet made, not on automatic increases from the IRS.
  • Major tax provisions expire at the end of 2025, which would lower tax brackets and reduce deductions and credits unless Congress extends them.
  • A larger refund in 2026 would most likely come from Congress lowering tax rates or expanding credits, not from the IRS changing how refunds work.
  • Your refund is determined by how much you overpaid in taxes during the year, not by your income or filing status alone.

What happens to tax brackets and deductions after 2025

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act lowered tax brackets and increased the standard deduction starting in 2018. Those changes are scheduled to expire on December 31, 2025, reverting to 2017 levels adjusted for inflation. If that happens, the standard deduction will drop, and your taxable income will be higher at the same earnings level.

For example, the standard deduction for a single filer in 2025 is $14,600. If the TCJA provisions expire without extension, that deduction would fall to approximately $13,850 (adjusted for inflation from 2017 levels). That means more of your income becomes taxable, which typically results in a smaller refund or a larger tax bill.

Congress could extend these provisions, modify them, or let them expire. Each path produces a different outcome for your 2026 refund. There is no way to know which will happen until Congress votes.

How child tax credits and other credits affect your 2026 refund

The child tax credit is currently $2,000 per may have access to child under age 17. After 2025, it reverts to $1,000 per child unless Congress extends the higher amount. A family with two children would see a potential $2,000 reduction in their tax credit, which directly reduces their refund.

Other credits that may change include the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and the American Opportunity Credit for education. The EITC has historically been extended or modified by Congress, but the terms and amounts are not may provide. If you rely on these credits for your refund, changes to them in 2026 could significantly affect what you receive.

Credits are more powerful than deductions because they reduce your tax dollar-for-dollar. A $1,000 credit saves you $1,000 in taxes. A $1,000 deduction saves you only the percentage of that amount based on your tax bracket. If Congress reduces credits, your refund shrinks more noticeably than if deductions alone were reduced.

What you can control about your 2026 refund

You cannot control what Congress does with tax law, but you can control how much you have withheld from your paychecks. If you want a larger refund in 2026, you can reduce your withholding — which means more money in your paycheck during the year, but less refunded to you in 2026. If you want a smaller refund (or to owe less), you can increase your withholding.

Most people aim for a refund close to zero, because a large refund means you gave the government an interest-free loan all year. You can adjust your withholding by filing a new Form W-4 with your employer. The IRS provides a withholding calculator on its website to help you estimate the right amount.

If you are self-employed or have income not subject to withholding, you make estimated tax payments quarterly. You can adjust those payments based on what you expect to owe in 2026, which gives you more direct control over your refund size.

Scenarios that could increase your 2026 refund

A larger refund in 2026 would require Congress to take action that lowers your tax burden. This could happen if Congress extends the TCJA provisions at their current levels, expands existing credits, or creates new ones. It could also happen if you have a major life change — a new child, a significant charitable donation, a large medical expense, or a home purchase with a mortgage — that increases your deductions or credits.

Job loss or a drop in income during 2026 would also increase your refund, because you would have overpaid taxes based on a higher income in previous years. Similarly, if you had taxes withheld from unemployment benefits or other income sources, that withholding might exceed what you actually owe.

None of these scenarios are may provide. The only way to know whether your 2026 refund will be larger is to wait until you have filed your 2026 tax return and seen the actual numbers.

How to prepare now for 2026 tax filing

Start by understanding your current withholding. Look at your 2024 and 2025 tax returns and see whether you received a refund and how large it was. If you consistently get large refunds, you are overwithholding, and you could adjust your W-4 to get more money in your paycheck instead.

Keep records of any major life changes that might affect your 2026 taxes: marriage, divorce, a new child, home purchase, significant medical expenses, or charitable donations. These can all affect your refund. If you are self-employed, track your income and expenses throughout 2026 so you can make accurate estimated tax payments.

Watch for news about tax law changes in late 2025. If Congress extends or modifies the TCJA provisions, that will give you a clearer picture of what your 2026 tax situation will look like. You can then adjust your withholding or estimated payments accordingly.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will the IRS automatically give me a bigger refund in 2026?

No. The IRS does not increase refunds automatically. Your refund depends on the tax law in effect when you file and how much you overpaid during the year. If Congress changes tax law, that could affect your refund, but the IRS itself does not raise refund amounts.

What if Congress lets the TCJA provisions expire?

If the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions expire without extension, tax brackets will narrow and the standard deduction will drop. For most people, this means a smaller refund or a larger tax bill in 2026, unless you have significant deductions or credits that offset the change.

Can I do anything now to increase my 2026 refund?

You can reduce your withholding on your W-4 to have less tax taken from your paychecks, which increases your refund when you file — but this also means less money in your pocket during 2026. You cannot control what Congress does with tax law, but you can control how much you withhold.

Does a bigger refund mean I got a tax cut?

No. A larger refund just means you overpaid taxes during the year. A tax cut would mean you owe less tax overall. You could have a large refund and still owe more tax than you did the previous year if your income increased significantly.

When will I know what my 2026 refund will be?

You will know the actual amount only after you file your 2026 tax return, usually in early 2027. You can estimate it by using the IRS withholding calculator or by working with a tax professional who can model different scenarios based on expected changes to tax law.